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A new academic study counterintuitively concludes that online piracy can boost revenue for some films. By analyzing years of box office data, as well as upload details from The Pirate Bay, researchers found that high-quality leaks of "spectacle" movies, such as Marvel blockbusters, appear to increase theater attendance. For "story-driven" films, however, the opposite is true.
The general belief in Hollywood is that piracy causes billions of dollars in lost revenue and is predominantly harmful.
However, if research has shown anything over the years, it’s that piracy can have positive effects too.
Indeed, a new study from researchers at Monash University and San Jose State University, published in Research Policy, provides fresh evidence for this. It suggests that, under the right conditions, piracy can boost box office ticket sales.
The paper, titled “Avengers assemble! When digital piracy increases box office demand”, uses a dataset that matches U.S. box office revenue with the timing of high-quality piracy releases between 2004 and 2020.
The ‘Spectacle’ vs. ‘Story’ Divide
For this study, the researchers make a distinction between “Spectacle” films, which include stunning visual blockbusters or action flicks, and “Story” films, such as dramas and comedies.
Spectacle films are broadly defined as movies where the in-theater experience significantly adds to the experience. For example, through stunning visuals and immersive surround sound. Story films, however, rely more on the dialogue, screenwriting, and acting—qualities that can also be enjoyed on a laptop or TV.
After categorizing the films, the researchers analyzed a dataset of U.S. box office figures, matching these with upload data from The Pirate Bay to track when high-quality pirated copies appeared online. Since the timing of these pirate releases is quasi-random, the research effectively infers a causal effect of piracy on box office revenues, depending on the movie type.
‘High-Quality Piracy Boosts Box Office Revenue’
These narrowed-down results are striking. While piracy seemingly hurt dramas and comedies, it appears to act as a promotional tool for ‘spectacle’ films, driving audiences to the movie theater rather than keeping them at home.
This isn’t a small effect either. The study estimates that high-quality pirate releases increase weekly box-office revenue by approximately 24.4% for spectacle films. For story films, the effect flips, as pirate releases lead to a 26.6% decline in weekly box-office revenue.
“Our research shows that digital piracy does not harm all movies equally,” says the paper’s co-author Wendy Bradley, who works as an assistant professor of management at San José State University. She notes that, for spectacle-oriented films, piracy can act as a nudge to go to the box office.
“Watching a pirated copy may convince people that the real value of the film comes from the shared cinematic experience, not just the story, and encourage them to watch in theaters. In contrast, story-driven movies are more vulnerable because piracy is a better substitute for in-theater visits,” Bradley says.
This is corroborated by the paper’s lead author, Klaus Ackermann, who notes that some movies are simply better suited for today’s movie theater experience.
“A romantic comedy or ‘chick flick’ like 27 Dresses offers a limited in-cinema experience by itself, while Marvel movies are a different story,” Ackermann notes, adding that movie theaters have already started to respond to this by offering more ‘experiences’ and special events.
‘Low-Quality Releases Hurt Revenues’
Importantly, the positive effects on box office revenues are unique to high-quality piracy leaks, which include “BluRay” or “HD” rips. The researchers found that low-quality versions, including CAM rips, consistently hurt box office revenues across all genres.
The impact is substantial here as well, as low-quality pirate releases were typically linked to a 24% drop in box office revenues.
While these results may seem counterintuitive, the authors have statistically ruled out several alternative explanations. That said, the study relies on a quasi-random research design that tried to simulate causality. Therefore, follow-up research is needed to replicate and potentially expand these spectacular results.
A Structural Shift?
The paper suggests that future research may also want to consider the effect of piracy on legal streaming subscription services like Netflix, or other forms of entertainment, such as video games.
For the movie industry, the paper once again suggests that a focus on adding value is key to competing with piracy. This is in line with research we covered last month, which showed that investments in the movie theater experience can help deter piracy.
Bradley stresses that their research indicates that piracy does not have to be met with more enforcement all the time. Instead, studios may want to focus on offering a better theater experience. Then, high quality pirate releases serve as promotion.
“My takeaway for studios is that digital piracy isn’t going away,” Bradley says.
“Rather than fighting it predominantly through legal means, whether that be lobbying for anti-piracy policy or expensive IP litigation, studios can strategically design, price, and release movies so that theatrical value becomes harder to replicate at home,” she concludes.
—-
Ackermann, K., Bradley, W. A., & Cameron, J. F. (2025). Avengers assemble! When digital piracy increases box office demand. Research Policy, 54, 105266. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2025.105266.
The general belief in Hollywood is that piracy causes billions of dollars in lost revenue and is predominantly harmful.
However, if research has shown anything over the years, it’s that piracy can have positive effects too.
Indeed, a new study from researchers at Monash University and San Jose State University, published in Research Policy, provides fresh evidence for this. It suggests that, under the right conditions, piracy can boost box office ticket sales.
The paper, titled “Avengers assemble! When digital piracy increases box office demand”, uses a dataset that matches U.S. box office revenue with the timing of high-quality piracy releases between 2004 and 2020.
The paper: Avengers assemble!
The researchers find that the impact of piracy on movie theater attendance differs for various types of films.
The ‘Spectacle’ vs. ‘Story’ Divide
For this study, the researchers make a distinction between “Spectacle” films, which include stunning visual blockbusters or action flicks, and “Story” films, such as dramas and comedies.
Spectacle films are broadly defined as movies where the in-theater experience significantly adds to the experience. For example, through stunning visuals and immersive surround sound. Story films, however, rely more on the dialogue, screenwriting, and acting—qualities that can also be enjoyed on a laptop or TV.
After categorizing the films, the researchers analyzed a dataset of U.S. box office figures, matching these with upload data from The Pirate Bay to track when high-quality pirated copies appeared online. Since the timing of these pirate releases is quasi-random, the research effectively infers a causal effect of piracy on box office revenues, depending on the movie type.
‘High-Quality Piracy Boosts Box Office Revenue’
These narrowed-down results are striking. While piracy seemingly hurt dramas and comedies, it appears to act as a promotional tool for ‘spectacle’ films, driving audiences to the movie theater rather than keeping them at home.
This isn’t a small effect either. The study estimates that high-quality pirate releases increase weekly box-office revenue by approximately 24.4% for spectacle films. For story films, the effect flips, as pirate releases lead to a 26.6% decline in weekly box-office revenue.
“Our research shows that digital piracy does not harm all movies equally,” says the paper’s co-author Wendy Bradley, who works as an assistant professor of management at San José State University. She notes that, for spectacle-oriented films, piracy can act as a nudge to go to the box office.
“Watching a pirated copy may convince people that the real value of the film comes from the shared cinematic experience, not just the story, and encourage them to watch in theaters. In contrast, story-driven movies are more vulnerable because piracy is a better substitute for in-theater visits,” Bradley says.
This is corroborated by the paper’s lead author, Klaus Ackermann, who notes that some movies are simply better suited for today’s movie theater experience.
“A romantic comedy or ‘chick flick’ like 27 Dresses offers a limited in-cinema experience by itself, while Marvel movies are a different story,” Ackermann notes, adding that movie theaters have already started to respond to this by offering more ‘experiences’ and special events.
‘Low-Quality Releases Hurt Revenues’
Importantly, the positive effects on box office revenues are unique to high-quality piracy leaks, which include “BluRay” or “HD” rips. The researchers found that low-quality versions, including CAM rips, consistently hurt box office revenues across all genres.
The impact is substantial here as well, as low-quality pirate releases were typically linked to a 24% drop in box office revenues.
While these results may seem counterintuitive, the authors have statistically ruled out several alternative explanations. That said, the study relies on a quasi-random research design that tried to simulate causality. Therefore, follow-up research is needed to replicate and potentially expand these spectacular results.
A Structural Shift?
The paper suggests that future research may also want to consider the effect of piracy on legal streaming subscription services like Netflix, or other forms of entertainment, such as video games.
For the movie industry, the paper once again suggests that a focus on adding value is key to competing with piracy. This is in line with research we covered last month, which showed that investments in the movie theater experience can help deter piracy.
Bradley stresses that their research indicates that piracy does not have to be met with more enforcement all the time. Instead, studios may want to focus on offering a better theater experience. Then, high quality pirate releases serve as promotion.
“My takeaway for studios is that digital piracy isn’t going away,” Bradley says.
“Rather than fighting it predominantly through legal means, whether that be lobbying for anti-piracy policy or expensive IP litigation, studios can strategically design, price, and release movies so that theatrical value becomes harder to replicate at home,” she concludes.
—-
Ackermann, K., Bradley, W. A., & Cameron, J. F. (2025). Avengers assemble! When digital piracy increases box office demand. Research Policy, 54, 105266. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2025.105266.