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IPL 2025 Mega Auction: The Likely Trends

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This will be the first mega auction in the Impact Player-era, and that will force teams to apportion their INR 120 crore purse very differently ©BCCI
There is nothing quite like the IPL mega auction. There is no cricket being played, but how teams play over a three-year cycle can be a function of how executives, cricketers-turned-coaches, scouts and analysts use hours of prep work to navigate little nuances in a tense board-room setting. Seventeen years on, the auction is still entertaining and yet can be equally confusing or unfulfilling if you are looking for traditional sporting narratives. It will run for several hours over two days, at the end of which there are no winners or losers. There are no trophies given out either. The bid values will boggle and teams strategies may not always make sense.

There have been five previous mega auctions and each of them has revealed a bit more about how teams plan to set up for a three-year cycle. T20 has arguably become the most tactical and intricate of the three formats. Trends keep evolving. In fact, analysts opine that T20 data that is more than two years old is probably outdated. Newer metrics are used to judge T20 potential - such as balls per boundary, or strike-rate in the first 10 balls. Batters have super specialisations - spin hitter, high-pace hitter etc.

This will, however, be the first mega auction in the Impact Player-era, and that will force teams to apportion their INR 120 crore purse very differently as they make their 25-member roster. Here are a few pointers on which types of players are likely to be in demand, and which ones perhaps not.

Where is my specialist spinner?

IPL 2024 saw spinners concede at an economy of 8.69 - the worst for spin in an IPL season ever. It's a significant 11.7% jump from 2022 when the IPL was last played without the Impact Player. In this time, the spin average has also jumped up by 16.7% (29.11 to 33.97). But here are some counterpoints. The three best teams of the last cycle had two top spinners bowling in tandem: Rashid Khan and Noor Ahmad for Gujarat Titans, Yuzvendra Chahal and Ravichandran Ashwin for Rajasthan Royals, and Sunil Narine and Varun Chakaravarthy for Kolkata Knight Riders. The three teams with fewest wickets for spinners were also those with the lowest win percentage in the cycle.

Spin wickets in IPL cycle 2022-24

Team Spin Wkts Win %
MI 68 38.6
PBKS 66 42.9
SRH 57 43.2
Of the nine spinners to take 10+ wickets in IPL 2024, seven are wrist spinners, one a mystery spinner (Narine), with the lone exception being Axar Patel, who is a left-arm orthodox spinner. As has been evident for a while, there is a concerted shift away from the idea of a pure spinner: a spin bowler is viewed as what he can offer as a package: someone capable of contributing with the bat and as a match-up option with the ball. A specialist spinner therefore is likely a wrist spinner, or at best offers an element of mystery.

With Rashid Khan, Kuldeep Yadav, Varun Chakaravarthy and Ravi Bishnoi already retained, teams have very few top-drawer picks to choose from in this category: Chahal, Noor, Rahul Chahar, Wanindu Hasaranga and Allah Ghazanfar. This demand-supply mismatch could lead to a big bidding battle for a select few. While Chahal's auction price of INR 6.25 crores in 2022 was also a result of the spinners set coming up late in the auction order, IPL's leading wicket-taker should be a beneficiary of being placed in the marquee set this time around when the teams still have a large purse to splurge on him.

Which of these spinners will go for the most money?
Which of these spinners will go for the most money? ©Cricbuzz
Top order, top draw?

That T20 is a hitter's game was made amply clear in the 2024 season that saw 41 scores of 200 or more, including the highest total (287/3) and the highest successful chase (262/2) in the league's history. With an additional batting resource in the form of the Impact Player now available, there's more freedom as well as a greater demand on the need to maximise the fielding restrictions.

Seven of the top ten PowerPlay totals in the league's history were achieved in the recent season. Two of the sides - SRH (11.18) and KKR (11.07) - scored at over 11 an over in this phase, and unsurprisingly played the final. Amid the batting (r)evolution in the IPL, the scoring rate in the first six overs has seen a significant increase of 21.1% when compared to the increase in the other two phases of the game.

The Power in the Play

Phase 2022 2024 % increase
Overs 1-6 7.82 9.47 21.1%
Overs 7-15 8.08 8.83 9.3%
Overs 16-20 10.46 11.21 7.2%
This is a particularly deep pool to dip into with the likes of Phil Salt, Jos Buttler, Jonny Bairstow, Will Jacks, Finn Allen, Prithvi Shaw, Rahul Tripathi, Evin Lewis, Faf du Plessis, Mitchell Marsh, Rahmanullah Gurbaz and even Ben Duckett to choose from. While there are enough options to go around, the elite hitters who can marry speed with volume like Salt, Buttler and those that can offer a secondary value (like wicket-keeping) could find teams clamouring for them.

Bid less for the bit-parts?

The 2023 mini auction saw the three highest bids in the history of the auction up until that point - Sam Curran (INR 18.5 cr to PBKS), Cameron Green (INR 17.5 cr to MI), and Ben Stokes (INR 16.25 cr to CSK). The Impact Player rule was announced right after this auction, days before the start of the season. While genuine all-rounders have held fort and were even largely retained ahead of this auction, the lesser but still multi-skilled have been left with a bit of an identity crisis. Their involvement in games dropped substantially when viewed by the metric of average number of balls involved per match.

Balls involved per match for select players: 2021-22 vs 2023-24

Player 2021-22 2023-24
Washington Sundar 25.3 21.9
Shardul Thakur 24.7 20.2
Krunal Pandya 25.7 24.8
Deepak Hooda 21.2 9.5
Shahbaz Ahmed 19.6 15.8
Moeen Ali 29.3 17.1
Harpreet Brar 26.4 18.7
Balls involved per match = (Total balls faced + Total balls bowled /Matches played)

The likes of Shardul Thakur (10.75 cr), Washington Sundar (8.75 cr), Krunal Pandya (8.25 cr) and Deepak Hooda (5.75 cr) were signed for big money in the last mega auction. They could attract a lower proportion of the auction purse from the teams this time around.

Hit deck, hit jackpot?

The last mega auction in 2022 saw a distinct trend of fast bowlers commanding high prices. As many as 15 fast/fast medium bowlers fetched bids in excess of INR 7 crores - which was nearly 13% of the purse available (INR 90 crores per team). Interestingly enough, barring Pat Cummins and the withdrawn Jofra Archer, every other quick sold then is back in the pool this time around. Given how batters have dominated the retention list, it is only fair to expect demand and competition to be high when these fast bowlers come out of the bag. It might also seem prudent to envision a proportional 33 percent increase to their value, in the range of INR 9 crores.

Could hard length enforcer Lockie Ferguson, with his recent T20I hattrick, spark a bidding war?
Could hard length enforcer Lockie Ferguson, with his recent T20I hattrick, spark a bidding war? ©BCCI
But not all fast bowlers are equal in T20. There are those like Arshdeep Singh, Mitchell Starc and Trent Boult, who offer a point of difference with their left-arm angle, swing the new ball and also operate at the other end of a T20 innings. However, there is a growing requirement for hit-the-deck quicks to take over in the middle-overs of a T20 to counter those spin hitters.

Andre Russell (12 wickets), Cummins/ Mathreesha Pathirana (8 wickets) and Cam Green/Harshit Rana/Harshal Patel (7 wickets) were the highest wicket-takers in the middle overs of IPL 2024 and unsurprisingly, four of these six have been retained while the injured Green is not part of this auction. Even with enough supply, expect pitched battles for the quicks, particularly those that offer definitive skills.

Fast bowlers with 7+ crore price in the 2022 mega auction

Player Skillset Sold Price (INR cr)
Deepak Chahar Swing bowler 14.00
Harshal Patel Change up specialist 10.75
Shardul Thakur Change up specialist 10.75
Lockie Ferguson Hard length enforcer 10.00
Prasidh Krishna Hard length enforcer 10.00
Avesh Khan Hard length enforcer 10.00
Kagiso Rabada Hard length enforcer 9.25
Jason Holder Change up specialist 8.75
Trent Boult Swing bowler 8.00
Jofra Archer All phase bowler 8.00
Josh Hazlewood Hard length enforcer 7.75
Romario Shepherd Change up specialist 7.75
Mark Wood Hard length enforcer 7.50
Pat Cummins Hard length enforcer 7.25
Shivam Mavi New ball specialist 7.25
 
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